April 6, 2021

arctic average temperature

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Found insidefrom the heterogeneous region encompassed by the Arctic Circle; being a mathematical concept that cuts across natural ... The average temperature of the warmest summer month is by definition less than 50° F., but maximum summer ... Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp. And it’s got mountains. By the end of the 21st century, the annual average temperature in the Arctic is predicted to increase by 2.8 to 7.8 °C (5.0 to 14.0 °F), with more warming in winter (4.3 to 11.4 °C (7.7 to 20.5 °F)) than in summer. (2017),94 Figure 7.1. Park, 2014: From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise. The average temperature in Anchorage during summer is normally in the mid-sixties. This means that, all else being equal, future droughts in most regions will likely be stronger and potentially last longer. (1996)274 examined differences in area-averaged time series at various scales for homogeneity-adjusted temperature data versus non-adjusted data and found that when the area reached the scale of the NCA regions, little differences were found. For example, since the Third National Climate Assessment was published,1 2014 became the warmest year on record globally; 2015 surpassed 2014 by a wide margin; and 2016 surpassed 2015.2,3 Sixteen of the last 17 years have been the warmest ever recorded by human observations. Hay, C. C., E. Morrow, R. E. Kopp, and J. X. Mitrovica, 2015: Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise. These trends are likely to be strongest in the Southwest and Southern Great Plains, where precipitation is projected to decrease in most seasons (Figure 2.5, right) and droughts may become more frequent.101,108,109,110,111,112 Although recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States, the Dust Bowl of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record, and though by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation (e.g., see McCabe et al. 2017122) further confirm the increase in thermal expansion. Found inside – Page 761The annual average temperatures of the Arctic region are below 32° F. On the island of Jan Mayen, 29° F. ; in Spitzbergen, 22° F. ; Sea of Kara, 13° F. ; Point Barrow, 8° F.j Lady Franklin Bay, 2° F. In Spitzbergen the average ... Lee, M. K. Tippett, and A. Natural variability will continue to be a factor, but most of the differences between present and future climates will be determined by choices that society makes today and over the next few decades that determine emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases, as well as any potential large-scale interventions as discussed in DeAngelo et al. Changes that occur in one part or region of the climate system can affect others. Seminar paper from the year 2011 in the subject Tourism - Miscellaneous, grade: 1,2, , language: English, abstract: Wild bears, double‐digit minus degrees and no comfortable luxury hotel within the range of vision‐ Polar Regions may not ... These factors, known as radiative forcings, include changes in greenhouse gases, small airborne soot and dust particles known as aerosols, and the reflectivity (or albedo) of Earth’s surface through land-use and land-cover changes (see Ch. The primary dataset for surface temperatures in the United States is nClimGrid,85,152 though trends are similar in the U.S. Global annually averaged temperature measured over both land and oceans has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) according to a linear trend from 1901 to 2016, and by 1.2°F (0.65°C) for the period 1986–2015 as compared to 1901–1960. In particular, comparisons of model projections for total precipitation (from both CMIP3 and CMIP5; see Sun et al. Mears, C. A., and F. J. Wentz, 2016: Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment. The multimodel mean is based on 32 model projections that were statistically downscaled using the LOcalized Constructed Analogs technique.247 The range is defined as the difference between the average increase in the three coolest models and the average increase in the three warmest models. From 2002 to 2016, ice mass was lost at an average rate of 270 billion tons per year on average, or about 0.1% per decade, a rate that has increased in recent years.131 The effects of warmer air and ocean temperatures on the melting ice sheet can be amplified by other factors, including dynamical feedbacks (faster sliding, greater calving, and increased melting for the part of the ice that is underwater), near-surface ocean warming, and regional ocean and atmospheric circulation changes.132,133,134,135. Several avenues of research, including emerging science on physical feedbacks in the Antarctic ice sheet (e.g., DeConto and Pollard 2016, Kopp et al. In March, April and May the average temperature in the Arctic was 10 °C higher than normal. Pedersen, R. A., I. Cvijanovic, P. L. Langen, and B. M. Vinther, 2016: The impact of regional arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and the NAO. Day, J. J., J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, and A. Abe-Ouchi, 2012: Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent. These calculations produce the global average temperature deviations from the baseline period of 1951 to 1980. It also shows how variations in the inflow of warm Atlantic water has caused variations in Arctic sea ice and Arctic temperatures over the past 9000 years. Dettinger, M. D., 2013: Atmospheric rivers as drought busters on the U.S. West Coast. Here, the temperature can drop to … van Oldenborgh, G. J., K. van der Wiel, A. Sebastian, R. Singh, J. Arrighi, F. Otto, K. Haustein, S. Li, G. Vecchi, and H. Cullen, 2017: Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. van Vuuren, D. P., S. Deetman, M. G. J. den Elzen, A. Hof, M. Isaac, K. Klein Goldewijk, T. Kram, A. Mendoza Beltran, E. Stehfest, and J. van Vliet, 2011: RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2° C. Vaughan, D. G., J. C. Comiso, I. Allison, J. Carrasco, G. Kaser, R. Kwok, P. Mote, T. Murray, F. Paul, J. Ren, E. Rignot, O. Solomina, K. Steffen, and T. Zhang, 2013: Observations: Cryosphere. Evidence for oxygen trends arises from extensive global measurements of WOCE after 1989 and individual profiles before that.43 The first basin-wide dissolved oxygen surveys were performed in the 1920s.255 The confidence level is based on globally integrated O2 distributions in a variety of ocean models. The lack of high-quality data and the restricted spatial resolution of surface and ground temperature data over many arctic land regions, coupled with the fact that there are essentially no measurements over the Central Arctic Ocean, hampers the ability to better refine the rate of arctic warming and completely restricts our ability to quantify and detect regional trends, especially over the sea ice. ... Average Arctic sea ice to-date (first 289 days of the year) is the ninth lowest on record. The primary concern related to ocean circulation is the potential slowing of the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Fritsch, J. M., R. J. Kane, and C. R. Chelius, 1986: The contribution of mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season precipitation in the United States. Church, J. Gilson, D. Monselesan, P. Sutton, and S. Wijffels, 2015: Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006. 201724 for descriptions of the scenarios and the models used). Church, J. PAGES 2K Consortium, 2013: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Lin, N., R. E. Kopp, B. P. Horton, and J. P. Donnelly, 2016: Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100. All said, the thermostat wars might be at an end. Utilizing the industry leading EVI (Enhanced Vapor Injection) compressors with DC variable speed input, our heat pumps are able to operate continuously in weather as low as -30 C (-22F). “Part of the problem is trying to work out the ‘correct’ temperature. Lucas, C., B. Timbal, and H. Nguyen, 2014: The expanding tropics: A critical assessment of the observational and modeling studies. Global Change Research Program 1800 G Street, NW, Suite 9100, Washington, DC 20006 USA Tel: +1 202.223.6262 | Fax: +1 202.223.3065, Contact Us • NCEI, 2016: Climate at a Glance: Global Temperature Anomalies. Permission of the copyright owner must be obtained The never-ending battle over the best office temperature, having slaves fan air over a pile of snow through a hole in the ceiling. Observed trends in a broad range of physical climate indicators show that Earth is warming. 2013190). Additionally, climate models capture the enhanced warming in the Arctic, indicating a solid understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms. AMOC strength is controlled by the rate of sinking within the North Atlantic, which is in turn affected by the rate of heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere. The average annual land surface air temperature north of 60° N for October 2019-September 2020 was the second highest on record since at least 1900. Yes, ladies, there’s a reason you’re freezing to death at work. Pfeffer et al. Romanovsky, V. E., S. L. Smith, K. Isaksen, N. I. Shiklomanov, D. A. Streletskiy, A. L. Kholodov, H. H. Christiansen, D. S. Drozdov, G. V. Malkova, and S. S. Marchenko, 2016: [The Arctic] Terrestrial permafrost [in “State of the Climate in 2015”]. Mechanisms controlling marine-terminating glacier dynamics, specifically the roles of atmospheric warming, seawater intrusions under floating ice shelves, and the penetration of surface meltwater to the glacier bed, are key uncertainties in projecting Greenland ice sheet melt. So the ocean warms the air a bit. The average temperature on Earth is 61 degrees F (16 C). Cross, K. Currie, T. Gasser, I. Harris, J. Hauck, V. Haverd, R. A. Houghton, C. W. Hunt, G. Hurtt, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, M. Kautz, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, P. Landschützer, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, S. Lienert, I. Lima, D. Lombardozzi, N. Metzl, F. Millero, P. M. S. Monteiro, D. R. Munro, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. I. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, X. Sanderson, B. M., and M. F. Wehner, 2017: Model Weighting Strategy. When asked in 1999 what was responsible for the tropical country’s economic success, he gave an unexpected reply: air conditioning. There is very high confidence in measurements that show increases in the ocean heat content and warming of the ocean, based on the agreement of different methods. These approaches are in general agreement. Kopp, R. E., C. C. Hay, C. M. Little, and J. X. Mitrovica, 2015: Geographic variability of sea-level change. 2020 is the warmest calendar year on record for Europe by a clear margin, with a temperature 1.2°C above the 1991-2020 average. Meehl, G. A., C. Tebaldi, and D. Adams-Smith, 2016: US daily temperature records past, present, and future. Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum each September. Mild temperature variation may be healthy – but working in extreme heat or cold can be downright dangerous. (2017),57 Miller et al. January 18. Caesar, L., S. Rahmstorf, A. Robinson, G. Feulner, and V. Saba, 2018: Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Kopp, R. E., A. C. Kemp, K. Bittermann, B. P. Horton, J. P. Donnelly, W. R. Gehrels, C. C. Hay, J. X. Mitrovica, E. D. Morrow, and S. Rahmstorf, 2016: Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. Because it takes some time for Earth’s climate system to fully respond to an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, even if these concentrations could be stabilized at their current level in the atmosphere, the amount that is already there is projected to result in at least an additional 1.1°F (0.6°C) of warming over this century relative to the last few decades.24,26 If emissions continue, projected changes in global average temperature corresponding to the scenarios used in this assessment (see Box 2.4) range from 4.2°–8.5°F (2.4°–4.7°C) under a higher scenario (RCP8.5) to 0.4°–2.7°F (0.2°–1.5°C) under a very low scenario (RCP2.6) for the period 2080–2099 relative to 1986–2015 (Figure 2.2).24 However, these scenarios do not encompass all possible futures. The Antarctic is land surrounded by ocean. 2020 is the warmest calendar year on record for Europe by a clear margin, with a temperature 1.2°C above the 1991-2020 average. R. Karl, T., S. J. Hassol, C. D. Miller, and W. L. Murray, Eds. 2008, Kopp et al. Failing to keep workers comfortable isn’t simply mean – it has serious financial implications too. In addition, with the exception of Alaska, almost all U.S. coastlines are projected to experience higher-than-average sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss. Allen, J. T., and M. K. Tippett, 2015: The Characteristics of United States Hail Reports: 1955-2014. Pfeffer, W. T., J. T. Harper, and S. O'Neel, 2008: Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise. Tschudi, M., C. Fowler, J. Maslanik, J. S. Stewart, and W. Meier, 2016: EASE-Grid Sea Ice Age, Version 3.National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center. Harvey’s multiday total rainfall likely exceeded that of any known historical storm in the continental United States, while Maria’s rainfall intensity was likely even greater than Harvey’s, with some locations in Puerto Rico receiving multiple feet of rain in just 24 hours. The Key Message and supporting text summarize extensive evidence documented in the climate science literature and are similar to statements made in previous national (NCA3)1 and international249 assessments. A. Arendt, S. O'Neel, A. J. Johnson, and C. Kienholz, 2015: Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance. Mikhail Budyko’s 1972 predictions (solid gray lines) of (a) surface temperature and (b) changes in Arctic sea ice. Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., 2014: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. ), fingerprint, and ocean dynamic responses. Arctic land and sea ice loss observed in the last three decades continues, in some cases accelerating. 2015; Jevrejeva et al. Uncertainties in reconstructed GMSL change before the twentieth century also relate to the sparsity of geological proxies for sea level change, the interpretation of these proxies, and the dating of these proxies. Uncertainty in the projections of the number and intensity of ARs is introduced by uncertainties in the models’ ability to represent ARs and their interactions with climate. The hottest temperature ever recorded was 159.3 F (70.7 C) and the coldest temperature was minus 128.6 F (minus 89.2 C). Given the agreement among models and support of theory and mechanistic understanding, there is medium to high confidence in the overall projection, although there is some limitation on confidence levels due to the lack of a supporting detectable anthropogenic contribution to tropical cyclone intensities or precipitation rates. Barnes, E. A., and L. M. Polvani, 2015: CMIP5 projections of arctic amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic circulation, and of their relationship. The ocean under the Arctic ice is cold, but still warmer than the ice! A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger, 2016: Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide. In addition, many models share model components or code, so their simulations do not represent entirely independent projections. This graph shows the average monthly Arctic sea ice extent each September since 1979, derived from satellite observations. These calculations produce the global average temperature deviations from the baseline period of 1951 to 1980. Waldbusser, G. G., and J. E. Salisbury, 2014: Ocean acidification in the coastal zone from an organism's perspective: Multiple system parameters, frequency domains, and habitats. A lack of observations affects not only the ability to detect trends but also to quantify a potentially significant positive feedback to climate warming: the permafrost–carbon feedback. Borges, A. V., and N. Gypens, 2010: Carbonate chemistry in the coastal zone responds more strongly to eutrophication than ocean acidification. DeAngelo, B., J. Edmonds, D. W. Fahey, and B. M. Sanderson, 2017: Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation. Issued annually since 2006, the Arctic Report Card is a timely and peer-reviewed source for clear, reliable and concise environmental information on the current state of different components of the Arctic environmental system relative to historical records. Bopp, L., L. Resplandy, J. C. Orr, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, M. Gehlen, P. Halloran, C. Heinze, T. Ilyina, R. Séférian, J. Tjiputra, and M. Vichi, 2013: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: Projections with CMIP5 models. Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, and F. Zwiers, 2008: Human-induced Arctic moistening. Human-induced change is affecting atmospheric dynamics and contributing to the poleward expansion of the tropics and the northward shift in Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks since the 1950s (medium to high confidence). “By exposing yourself to mild cold and mild warm environments you get both cardiovascular and metabolic exercise,” he said. 2018229,230,231). Increasing sea surface temperatures, rising sea levels, and changing patterns of precipitation, winds, nutrients, and ocean circulation are contributing to overall declining oxygen concentrations in many locations. Branstator, G., and H. Teng, 2012: Potential impact of initialization on decadal predictions as assessed for CMIP5 models. It is almost 1.5 times the United States of America's size, but slightly smaller than Russia. While there are uncertainties associated with modeling some of these feedbacks,24,25 the most up-to-date scientific assessment shows that the net effect of these feedbacks over the industrial era has been to amplify human-induced warming, and this amplification will continue over coming decades18 (see Box 2.3). There is very high confidence that the arctic surface and air temperatures have warmed across Alaska and the Arctic at a much faster rate than the global average is provided by the multiple datasets analyzed by multiple independent groups indicating the same conclusion. A., Z. Zhang, K. A. Lombardo, E. Chang, P. Liu, and M. Zhang, 2013: Historical evaluation and future prediction of eastern North American and western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models during the cool season. Taken as a whole, however, in the context of scientific understanding of the climate system, the cumulative changes documented by each of these indicators paint a compelling and consistent picture of a warming world. Ryu, J.-H., and K. Hayhoe, 2017: Observed and CMIP5 modeled influence of large-scale circulation on summer precipitation and drought in the South-Central United States. Soils in the Arctic permafrost region holds double the amount of carbon as the entire atmosphere. The end of summer sea ice extent in 2020 was the second lowest in the 42-year satellite record, with 2012 being the record minimum year. Cooperative Observer Network (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/) and shown in Easterling et al. Some of the most rapid observed changes are occurring in Alaska and across the Arctic. Model weighting is employed to refine projections for each RCP. These multiple lines of evidence provide very high confidence of enhanced arctic warming with potentially significant impacts on coastal communities and marine ecosystems. At current emission rates, unless there is a very rapid decarbonization of the world’s energy systems over the next few decades, stabilization at neither target would be remotely possible.27,229,232,233, In addition, the warming and associated climate effects from carbon emissions will persist for decades to millennia.234,235 Climate intervention or geoengineering strategies, such as solar radiation management, are measures that attempt to limit the increase in or reduce global temperature. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The melting ice causes freshwater to be added to the seawater in the Arctic Ocean which flows into the North Atlantic. Record warm temperatures in the Eurasian Arctic were associated with extreme conditions in the ocean and on the land. Key uncertainties remain in the quantification and modeling of key physical processes that contribute to the acceleration of land and sea ice melting. The added freshwater makes the seawater less dense. Hönisch, B., A. Ridgwell, D. N. Schmidt, E. Thomas, S. J. Gibbs, A. Sluijs, R. Zeebe, L. Kump, R. C. Martindale, S. E. Greene, W. Kiessling, J. Ries, J. C. Zachos, D. L. Royer, S. Barker, T. M. M. Jr., R. Moyer, C. Pelejero, P. Ziveri, G. L. Foster, and B. Williams, 2012: The geological record of ocean acidification. In fact, the + 38.6°C reading was just one of many highs that made June 2020 in Siberia five degrees warmer than any June from 1981 to 2010. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season tied the record for the most named storms reaching hurricane strength (Figure 2.8); however, the number of storms was within the range of observed historical variability and does not alter the conclusion that climate change is unlikely to increase the overall number of storms on average. The discrepancy is explained in large part by the fact that women have fewer muscle and more fat cells, which are less active and produce less heat. Easterling, D. R., and T. C. Peterson, 1995: A new method for detecting undocumented discontinuities in climatological time series. Schuur, E. A. G., A. D. McGuire, C. Schadel, G. Grosse, J. W. Harden, D. J. Hayes, G. Hugelius, C. D. Koven, P. Kuhry, D. M. Lawrence, S. M. Natali, D. Olefeldt, V. E. Romanovsky, K. Schaefer, M. R. Turetsky, C. C. Treat, and J. E. Vonk, 2015: Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002. It is virtually certain that human activities have contributed to arctic surface temperature warming, sea ice loss, and glacier mass loss.122,142,143,144,145,146,147,148 Observed trends in temperature and arctic-wide land and sea ice loss are expected to continue through the 21st century. Dutton, A., A. E. Carlson, A. J. Each of these indicators, and many more, are changing in ways that are consistent with a warming climate. Knutson, T. R., J. J. Sirutis, M. Zhao, R. E. Tuleya, M. Bender, G. A. Vecchi, G. Villarini, and D. Chavas, 2015: Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios. Global Change Research Act of 1990. The average temperature in January is almost everywhere below -10 °C (14 °F), and it goes down to -45 °C (-49 °F) in the Eastern inland areas. Take it from Singapore’s first prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew, who passionately believed the optimal temperature was exactly 22°C. Note that generating figures takes 5 or 6 seconds; please be patient. Major uncertainties are related to deep soil and thermokarst processes, as well as the persistence or degradation of massive ice (e.g., ice wedges) and the dependence of CO2 and CH4 uptake and production on vegetation and soil properties. Observed increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States are projected to continue. The largest uncertainties are 1) whether proposed tipping elements actually undergo critical transitions, 2) the magnitude and timing of forcing that will be required to initiate critical transitions in tipping elements, 3) the speed of the transition once it has been triggered, 4) the characteristics of the new state that results from such transition, and 5) the potential for new positive feedbacks and tipping elements to exist that are yet unknown. In Anchorage, … This contributes to a greater rise in Arctic air temperature compared to the global average and affects formation of ice the next winter. Diffenbaugh, N. S., M. Scherer, and R. J. Trapp, 2013: Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing. Emanuel, K., 2017: Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall. Allen, R. J., J. R. Norris, and M. Kovilakam, 2014: Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width. In March, April and May the average temperature in the Arctic was 10 °C higher than normal. Easterling, K.E. This study provides a statistical analysis of available data on Arctic and subarctic inversions, and includes data from locations in Canada, Greenland, and Alaska. Comiso, J. C., and D. K. Hall, 2014: Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space. (2015),164 Payne and Magnusdottir (2015),312 Gao et al. CSSR underwent three rounds of technical federal review, external peer review by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and a review that was open to public comment. Pound, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, and Z. Zhang, 2013: Challenges in quantifying Pliocene terrestrial warming revealed by data-model discord. Helm, K. P., N. L. Bindoff, and J. Tipping point 4: The Arctic Permafrost. U.S. regional SST warming is similar between calculations using ERSSTv4 in this report and those published by Belkin (2016),254 suggesting confidence in these findings. Today, global climate models simulate many more aspects of the climate system: atmospheric chemistry and particles, soil moisture and vegetation, land and sea ice cover, and increasingly, an interactive carbon cycle and/or biogeochemistry. For 2070–2099 relative to 1986–2015, precipitation increases of up to 20% are projected in winter and spring for the north central United States and more than 30% in Alaska, while precipitation is projected to decrease by 20% or more in the Southwest in spring.

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