September 3, 2020

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by Admin

A belated in-depth look at Saturdays election in the Australian Capital Territory, where Labor is hoping to make it six in a row. Poll trend measures of leaders' net approval (top) and preferred prime minister (bottom) ratings since the start of Scott Morrison's prime ministership. 28 March. The Liberals could perhaps win a third seat in Murrumbidgee with a 2% swing, but Yerrabi and Ginninderra would require major breakthroughs. So, Labor + Greens = 52.2% according to the opinion poll. William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. The Liberals are most likely to win in the final term of an ALP Commonwealth Government, particularly if it is a Green backed minority government, through voters treating it as a by-election against the Commonwealth Government/balancing jurisdictions. When there are only 5 electorates and they are proportional and comparatively politically even, there is much less scope for wrong winner elections compared with a larger number of more diverse electorates. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/12/australian-capital-territory-election-guide-3/comment-page-1/#comment-3494241. With a 7 year old Coalition Commonwealth Government likely putting downward pressure on the Liberal vote, they are more likely to loose than win. For what its worth, it had similar numbers to the Australia Institute for the major parties 36.1% for Labor and 38.4% for Liberal but only 9.6% for the Greens. Exactly. Required fields are marked *. Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia. Victoria (localfor councils conducting a postal vote election) 24 October Labors likeliest path to defeat would involve losing seats in any two out of Yerrabi, Ginninderra and Murrumbidgee. This sounds much better for them than the combined result of the last election: 48.7%. With less than a week to go, I finally have an Australian Capital Territory election guide for your reading pleasure, consisting of an overview and reviews of the contests for the territorys five five-member electoral districts. All of the pre-poll voting centres allow for electronic voting, a contingency all but unique to the Australian Capital Territory, and Antony Green reports that nearly 90% of pre-poll voters are availing themselves of it. Jurisdiction and Type of Election. Your email address will not be published. With less than a week to go, I finally have an Australian Capital Territory election guide for your reading pleasure, consisting of an overview and reviews of the contests for the territorys five five-member electoral districts. If the bounce that other State governments that have handled Covid19 well is repeated in ACT, you would expect Labor to do well in this? Australian Capital Territory (territory) Between 5 and 23 October. Click. Antony Green is tracking the progress of pre-poll voting on his blog, and the numbers are rather startling, with 28.8% of enrolled voters already having cast their vote, compared with 7.3% at the same point in 2016. Australian Capital Territory election guide, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute. I expect hell do a Zed the moment an opportunity arises. So, Labor + Greens = 52.2% according to the opinion poll. This sounds much better for them than the combined result of the last election: 48.7%.. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution will be required in those states. That at least is my limited reading of the situation, which is based on a bare minimum of opinion polling. This could potentially take some of the drama out of election night, as results from electronic voting arrive in a flood within the first hour after polling booths close. Its a pity we do not get mroe polling of the ACT, given that its population is approaching the size of Tasmanias. There is a chance the Liberals could even go backwards by getting no gains and loosing a seat in Yerrabi. So I have to give credit for that. I could never vote for him, but Allistair Coe seems like a nice lad. Another maybe-notable independent: Helen Cross in Yerrabi, who was a Lib MP in Molonglo 2001-04, left the party, ran as an independent and bombed out with 3%. Socrates Territory wide figures dont help you much if there is not an even distribution of parties across all electorates, which there isnt & there is a differential swing between electorates (which happened in 2016) you might be right but no way of knowing for sure. Hes made a real effort to get involved in the local muslim community since becoming leader, and I assume with other religious/ethnic communities too. Sixteen years later, shes back for some reason. The only credible poll Im aware of was conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute back in early August, which had Labor on 37.6%, compared with 38.4% at the 2016 election; the Liberals at 38.2%, compared with 36.7%; and the Greens at 14.6%, compared with 10.3%. Redistribution means that the Liberals could win the final seat in Murrumbidgee without a swing Ben Raue who crunched the numbers on this. Queensland (local) 22 August. Northern Territory (territory) 13 September. Silly me. 2019. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. Results for Morrison in blue and Bill Shorten/Anthony Albanese in red. Loss of the second Liberal seat in Kurrajong while not very likely is more likely than the Liberals losing their second seat in Yerrabri, Alpo New South Wales (local) 17 October. View all posts by William Bowe. Repository of links to past election guides and poll trends for previous terms. I meant Kurrajong not Yerrabi. Hes been milking the demographics for all they are worth, but the take away message has been if you dont like our candidates, we have others Chaotic. 19 October. LOL. The Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled.

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