September 3, 2020

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The Big Question. Meanwhile, the white lower class, especially the older cohorts, will turn out for Trump in droves, just as their English counterparts turned out for Brexit.” The choice between Clinton and Trump was a choice between snafu and fubar, I wrote in September, “but wouldn’t you risk being fubar … if it was your only shot at avoiding four more years of snafu?”, “The rage against the global,” I wrote a week later, “is why Trump could win this election. It has been nearly four and a half years since I began writing this column, which works out at roughly 240,000 words altogether. But I also saw clearly the strength of Trump’s appeal. Having learned what was going on in China’s Hubei Province, he warned attendees at Davos that it was an impending pandemic, not global warming, they should be worried about. I compared Trump to unsuccessful Republican candidates Wendell Willkie and Barry Goldwater. Because the U.S., like much of the developed and emerging world, has been so slow to respond to the pandemic, Mr. Ferguson believes selling into rallies still makes sense. It has been nearly four and a half years since I began writing this column, which works out at roughly 240,000 words altogether. He fears if countries continue to mishandle the public health crisis, it will only exacerbate the pain later on. I was against Trump. The U.S. is printing money, but it’s doing so by creating excess reserves, not regular money. My forecast is for really slow growth because, one, the steps governments will need to take to contend with their soaring debts (tax increases and or austerity) and, two, I think consumers may tend to save more once out of this crisis as a precautionary response, and that will be another headwind for growth. I also predicted the bursting of the Trump bubble in the Wisconsin primary. Niall Ferguson: We’re Still Early Into This Crisis, This content is from: “He is winning,” I wrote “because no other candidate has a more convincing explanation of why so many Republican voters genuinely are worse off today than in 2000 … No one can rule out Democratic defections to Trump when it comes to the crunch on November 8.” I later imagined him winning and running for an unconstitutional third term in 2024. We won’t be able to bring the economy back until we get a handle on the public health crisis. He warned them in late January 2020 that equity markets would likely be severely impacted once the potential of the virus was known. Are we likely to see another sovereign debt crisis like the one that followed the Great Recession? It’s hard to see a third option between these two. I regretted that Mike Bloomberg chose not to run. Are there compelling investments in countries where they’ve handled the crisis significantly better than we have? “Trump can beat Hillary Clinton,” I wrote in May. On Brexit, I was wrong. These companies are worth more in late April than they were at the beginning of the year. And in a post-Covid-19 world, I can’t see what could stop these firms from making money and rallying further in 2021 and 2022. They are handling far more transactions than any western equivalents. So they can expect excess mortality rates to be much higher than say in Austria or Germany, where they are beginning to reopen more methodically. “Can Trump succeed where Mitt Romney failed?” I asked in July. This is the frontier that really matters. Which equities should hold up and which will likely remain vulnerable? But there’s definitely a scenario you can imagine where, maybe several years from now, there will be inflationary pressure from constrained supply and plentiful money. If you're happy with cookies click proceed. Fiscal and monetary measures only bought us a small amount of time. We’re going to do more online—whether it’s replacing business trips with Zoom meetings or trips to the cinema with Netflix—and that’s all predicated on the internet having the capacity to cope with this rising demand. Are we at risk of seeing large financial institutions fail? “We’re still relatively early into this crisis,” he cautions, “and despite all the monetary and fiscal policy being thrown at the problem, addressing the spread itself is key to containing the financial fall out." His most recent book, The Square and the Tower, is a New York Times bestseller. I don’t understand the rationale behind that. Software without hardware is useless, and hardware is absolutely dependent on the increasing capacity of semi-conductors. Just as the outbreak was underway at the beginning of January, Mr. Ferguson was traveling across eastern Asia, giving lectures in Hong Kong, Taipei, and Singapore. Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement. I anticipate the U.S. will be hit by a second wave of C-19, which will inhibit recovery. “Trump has both the resources and the incentives to press on. “The idea that we can … separate ourselves from Europe is an illusion,” I wrote on February 21. Now, dear reader, you are burning to know what I think will happen this November. The last few months have been a great advertisement for those countries. But this is an unsustainable state of affairs. Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center for … Banks went into this crisis better capitalized than they were in 2008. Moreover, the world will become more virtual post-pandemic. 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